If like me you actually enjoy some proper winter weather you are probably wondering if it is ever going to happen this year. I like winter weather for two reasons; it is a unique opportunity to take some great photographs that cannot be taken at any other time, walking in winter particularly in the high hills and mountains in the nearest thing I know to a religious experience with the crunch of ice and snow under your boots and stunning landscapes created by the same snow and ice. So the questions remains will I get a chance this winter to take the mountains when blanketed in snow and ice?
To try and answer my own question I have had a good look around the internet at various weather forecasting sites to see if I can come up with some sort of conclusion.
Exacta Weather say:
As I have stated many times before, I never expected December to be the worst month of this winter in meteorological terms. I have also stated that I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February.
January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.
February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.
The Met Office say:
Unsettled weather is set to persist during much of the first half of January, with changeable and often windy conditions, and showers or longer spells of rain, especially towards the north and west, where the rain is most likely to be heavy. It is expected to remain unsettled through the rest of the period: relatively mild but cloudy and wet periods interspersed with colder, clearer and more showery weather. Western and northwestern regions will continue to see the heaviest, most persistent rain, with occasional gales also likely here. Some hill snow is possible over Scotland, whilst showers in other northern areas also possibly turning wintry at times. Despite daytime temperatures often being largely near or above average, there will still be a risk of overnight frosts in any quieter interludes.
Weather Online say:
It's a cold start to 2012 with low pressure edging away to the east, a cold northerly flow covering all regions, wintry showers beginning to die away as pressure rises and an anticyclone builds through the UK, settling the weather in a cold and still pattern.
High pressure persists for a time as does the settled and chilly weather, this anticyclone shows signs of pulling back westward into the central Atlantic, allowing a more unsettled northwest to westerly flow to establish across all areas in the run up to mid-month, low pressure then moving into the UK, rather unsettled cold and windy, a real messy scenario with spells of rain, sleet and some wintry precipitation too almost anywhere.
The middle of the month looks like seeing colder weather for all areas and with low pressure wrapped up within the pattern, this may lead to a rather wintry spell for all areas during this middle period. This rather chilly and wintry mix continue right through until the latter stages of the month, when the flow looks likely to ease as pressure rises to the southwest with milder westerly regime establishing.
However this recovery in terms of both temperature and fortune may be temporary as colder air looks likely to flood back into the UK late in the month.
I think from these and other forecasts I have read the outlook for January 2012 is not good for me as the weather will continue to be quite mild and settled with high winds being the biggest feature of the weather which is a shame as high winds are my least favourite kind of weather. I suspect that the highest mountain tops will get a smattering of snow at times but nothing to tempt me into crampons. So its fingers crossed for February which is traditionally the best month of the winter for snow and ice, and perhaps March will be the sting in the tail of the 2011/12 winter so its a good job that Easter is in April again.
Anyway whatever happens in 2012 with the weather just remember to stay safe, the mountains will always be there for another day.